An Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: Why one test maybe is not enough to detect a virus in your body?
Published in
6 min readNov 2, 2017
Suppose that in the world exist a very rare disease. There is only a 1 in 1000 chance that you have the disease. You want to know whether you are infected or not, so you make a 99% accurate test… the test result is positive! How sure are you that you are really infected?
