What I’ve Learnt Predicting Soccer Matches with Machine Learning
I’ve always been fascinated by the markets. Maybe it started in my teens when my mate told me this “sure-win” betting strategy that involved betting on football matches being a draw and doubling my bet until I won — technically, he wasn’t wrong, but technically, I also did not have an infinite bankroll, so thanks a lot ZJ.
When I first heard of machine learning, I thought it was so much better than modelling football using traditional statistics, partly because of the restricting assumptions of those models and partly because I was pretty lazy to learn R at the time.
That was 1.5 years ago, and since then I’ve picked up Python (so much easier than R!) and read/applied everything about machine learning that I could find and finally created a model that’s slightly better than a martingale strategy. There is still a lot more to do, but this essay aims to consolidate what I’ve learnt so far and to share with anyone who’s starting out.
1. The bookmakers are really good at their job, i.e. markets are quite efficient
“I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers” — Eugene Fama