Using A Monte Carlo Simulation To Forecast Extreme Weather Events

Examining temperature scenarios with a Monte Carlo simulation

Michael Grogan
Towards Data Science
6 min readSep 5, 2020

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Source: Photo by Wild0ne from Pixabay

In a previous article, I outlined the limitations of conventional time series models such as ARIMA when it comes to forecasting extreme temperature values, which in and of themselves are outliers in the time series.

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