Quantum Computing: Why you should care (in less than 30 minutes)

This is section 3 of 3 from my recent eBook around the business relevance of quantum computing.
Section 1 ([see here](https://towardsdatascience.com/quantum-computing-how-it-could-be-used-6f873dfb7cea?sk=4975f20dfd7e2f377b21b99cd811fd18)) gives a brief overview of what Quantum Computing is. Section 2 (see here) talks about what it means in reality. This section talks about quantum readiness and makes clear why managers and executives need to start understanding this today, even if their first steps are small.
So, I get it, but I’m kinda busy!
Sitting here in Q3 2021 it’s easy to see quantum can’t possibly be a priority. I mean, not only do we have worries of future waves of Covid, but we have a dozen ESG priorities, we’re concerned about what the Texas power outage has shown us about mid-twentieth century infrastructure, we have an uncertain global geopolitical situation, we were caught on the hop by the Suez Canal blockage, we’re threatened by ransomware on every side, we’re grappling with the challenges of diverse, multi-generational workplaces, and we’ve social unrest at a level not seen for a generation.
Therefore, it’s all to easy to push the topic out of your mind. Maybe you’re thinking "this can wait" until better examples with real-world valuable are available. It’s also easy to reflect on recent buzzwords such as Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Cloud, and consider that despite all the board-level meetings most of this was handled by the data and IT guys, so why should quantum be any different? But I argue that this is different. This is not a new tool for a specific team, this is as fundamental as the arrival of desktop PCs, of the internet, and of smartphones. As we said at the start, would you not like to have been more on the front foot in each of those revolutions?
What was tricky back then was it was hard to really discuss how these technologies would change things. But here in we are in the 20s where data and communications channels are not the constraint when learning about something new. In fact, the limiting factor is the executive experience and bold decision-making that is needed to weed out what is important within the excess of noise on the topic. However, your job is not to fully understand this topic, it is to corral the different people to can, and to give them a framework to answer ‘how important will this be for us?’ and ‘when and how should we start to engage?’. Those are two questions that every manager and executive should be considering for different topics week-in, week-out. For quantum, it’s no different, except the scale of the prize and the risk of inaction are so much greater.
Therefore, as we start to wrap up let’s cover off a number of topics that would be easy reasons to push this topic out of your mind.
Is it just a bubble?
Today’s executives have lived through arguably the broadest set of technology-driven changes of any business leaders. The arrival of the Internet at the turn of the century changed the way many businesses worked, and even with the collapse of the dot common bubble, it was still clear that things were different. The twin arrivals of the smartphone and social media were equally disruptive. In terms of technologies, the recent buzzwords have been AI and Blockchain. The former has been broad and vague and generally conflated with the idea that "computers are smart". Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s 2020 reference to a ‘mutant algorithm‘ linked to UK exam results, has sullied the word for a generation. It is likely only when driverless cars really take off (pun not intended) that people will really see the true impact of AI in their lives.
Some will say Blockchain is an obvious comparator technology. Its complexity and esoteric nature is superficial similar from the point of view of a "non-tech" executive. Between 2016 and 2019 blockchain was being revered in much of the mainstream press, and executive teams and boards across the world were paying exaggerated sums for blockchain gurus to run workshops on how "distributed ledger technology" would revolutionise their business.
Aside from Bitcoin which will have made a small number of people very rich nothing substantive has yet come from blockchain technology. While it will become increasingly pervasive behind the scenes as it does have very real uses in certain situations, it has put a lot of executives off the idea they should invest any time (or money) in engaging early with complex new tech.
It is critical Quantum Computing does not get the cold shoulder due to the impact of mutant algorithms or non-sensical blockchain proclamations. A so-called Quantum Winter where the slower-than-expected development of technology and the disinterest of potential buyers is unlikely but not impossible and a genuine reason for executives to think carefully about the timing of their quantum readiness efforts
Can I get a true competitive advantage?
In some ways the most important question is Will the faster movers gain unassailable leads? The general sense is that the application of quantum algorithms to business situations will be incremental – both due to the incremental progress in increasingly quantum computers’ power and because the game-changing "killer apps" of quantum computing will take a number of years to appear.
As such an early mover might use their algo to generate a couple of basis points on a portfolio, or reduce its logistic costs by 0.1%, or reduce its energy consumption. This is unarguably ‘real money’ but it doesn’t fundamentally change the playing field and cannot be converted into a meaningful long-term competitive advantage as its competitors could replicate.
A different field of thought suggests that while network optimisation problems will be only marginal in their gains, work around modeling could lead to large discontinuities with patents protecting the discoveries for long enough to change that industry’s landscape– what if a new car battery technology was 400% more efficient and factories could be quickly converted to produce them? What if fertilizer could be produce at 30% of competitors’ costs with quick-to-implement process changes? What if a company identified a means to develop new drugs in months rather than years? Each of these could change the dynamics of an industry and crown new leaders with unassailable positions.
Ultimately these unknowns just add to what is an executive’s job, namely defining the right direction and choices for their company in a VUCA world. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity have been around for centuries, Quantum Computing is just the latest trigger for more of the same. As with every other challenge – such as changing competitor landscape, geopolitical pressures, shifting customer sentiment or expectations around sustainability – the executive’s job is to ensure they understand enough to reduce down their option set to a point they can be relatively confident they are not making a bad decision.
Thus no executive should really be trying to decide their ten-year quantum strategy at this point, but absolutely they should be considering their aspirations around quantum readiness and the steps to take to increase their and their organisations’ knowledge, removing blind spots, and ensuring that when important decisions need to be made they are both as well informed as they can be, and not constrained by things they didn’t do years earlier.
What about my IT investments?
As should be clear by now, extensive quantum computing is a while off and in the first years will be quite focused in what it will do. As such, there is no risk of rapid obsolescence in your current hardware and software investments (aside from the risk mentioned around encryption), nor of the skill sets of your programmers, IT professionals, and data scientists. Quantum computing is simply not relevant for emailing, producing PowerPoint, operating factories, running an eCommerce website, answering the phone in a call centre, or doing analytics on Excel.
In terms of near-term changes to your IT, a focus on new data analytics tools, use of the Cloud, hybrid-working and implementation of agile delivery models will all have far more impact on you and you staff than quantum computing.
The role of Quantum Computing in breaking the internet.
As I touched on at the start, one of the reasons that quantum computing is increasingly being discussed in mainstream publications is because of the proven ability for quantum computers to break much of the encryption used to keep the internet secure. An algorithm to do this was introduced by Peter Shor of MIT in 1994, and Shor’s algorithm remains by far the best-known QC algo. The basis of much modern encryption is the fact that computers are slow to factor very large numbers. Shor identified that this is one task that quantum computers are perfectly suited to.
Recent analysis suggests that to break RSA 2048-bit encryption in a day would require a multi-million qubit quantum computer. Even if we are some years away from such machines, it can take a decade or more to replace the core elements of IT and communications systems, so the topic is increasingly relevant now. Due to the cost involved, and associated strategic questions, this topic is moving beyond the CIO & CISO (Chief Information Officer & Chief Information Security Officer) to COOs, CFOs and potentially to executive teams and boards.
In some ways it is frustrating that the first real encounter with quantum computing for these senior executives will be a discussion about risk and about spending lots of money in a defensive way that creates no new value. The silver-lining will be if we can use these discussions to make them aware of the far broader, far more beneficial aspects of QC to their industries and their businesses.
Harvest today, decrypt tomorrow
Arguably of the most immediate concern is the concept of a "harvest today, decrypt tomorrow" attack (HTDT) where data is silently exfiltrated in a normal cyber-attack (i.e., the hacker doesn’t publicise it has been taken) and is held until it is cost-effectively to decrypt using quantum computers. This may be in 5, 10 or 15 years, and while most data is of little or no value over that time frame, certain types – e.g., health data, bank records, government and military information – might be. This may seem fantastical but there is increasing agreement that such threats are growing and attacks may already have taken place.
The risk of a Quantum winter?
Many QC practitioners are concerned about the concept of a quantum winter. This phrase, more broadly used in the context of AI-winter, is the idea that, after a period of rapid and enthusiastic growth in a technology, things appear to slow due to unrequited expectations. There is a delicate balance to be trodden to get the required investments to grow a new technology industry, but not over-promise on the speed of impact (and thus financial return). However aware all participants are around this risk it is a classic game-theory problem with each individual (researcher, start-up etc) wanting to make as much noise as possible about their step forward to gain attention, but the overall space being better served by a more thoughtful, almost stolid approach.
These concerns were first voiced in 2020 as ‘quantum computing’ was increasingly seen mentioned in the mainstream press and broader investment circles. There are strongly different views among experts as to how things will pan out, with the likely path being one of ongoing, impressive technical development, but true business impact lagging somewhat behind.
From the point of view of an executive thinking about quantum readiness it is certainly easier to be considering the topic entering the second half of 2021 than 18 months earlier. The acceleration of hardware, software and algorithms, as well as a clearly growing ecosystem of consultants and advisers, means that while it is still impossible to predict timelines, it is increasingly appropriate to be considering your quantum readiness plans now.
Other types of quantum tech
There are multiple other technology advancements using the quantum properties of matter that scientists and engineers are working with. These are broadly irrelevant to the quantum computing discussion in this primer and mention of them would be a distraction, and in most cases, while incredibly important in niche areas, are not relevant at an executive level.
These other terms include quantum communications, quantum photonics, quantum sensors and quantum random number generation.
To add further confusion, while most of this is not relevant, some of these technologies are key for ‘post-quantum cryptography’ that reduces the risks we discussed earlier of quantum computers hacking communications networks.
My advice? Ignore all of this; for 99% of you the only important quantum thing is quantum computing.
Can’t I just wait until QCs are properly available?
There’s another good reason why companies are starting to develop and run quantum algorithms even though classical computers can do the same job better (and cheaper). That reason is about testing and evidencing, and about being confident about the tools that are being developed
Once we have true quantum advantage it will not be straightforward to confirm the outcome of the calculations made by the QC. This lack of checking is disconcerting from many people – from data scientists who will develop the algorithms, to compliance officers who need to confirm to regulators that their companies understand how their tech operates. As such, by developing and running simplistic quantum algorithms whose outputs can be compared to outputs from a classical computer, companies can build up the confidence around their approach.
In many cases, companies will outsource the development of these early quantum algorithms to third parties as they don’t have the internal skills. Even in these cases, starting to work with those companies early will give both sides confidence around the partnership, ready for the more complex work ahead.
What next? Quantum Readiness and the questions to ask yourself
So, hopefully, it is clear by now that no one can predict exactly what’s going to happen when. Your aim, therefore, is to identify those no-regret moves that given you future option-value for the minimum cost – a true optimisation and trade-off problem if you will!
I challenge you to ask these interrelated questions that will help define your quantum readiness stance.
- Which roles should be thinking about this?
- If I wanted to name a point person who would that be?
- Which opportunities is this most relevant for?
- What’s the view of my industry on new tech? Do we lead or follow?
- How aggressively do I think my competitors will be considering this?
- What steps should I take to ensure we steadily build awareness and knowledge?
- Where does this sit in our risk mapping, our IT development path, and our Innovation roadmap?
And most importantly:
- What three things should I do about this tomorrow?
And that’s a wrap…
(For links to all three chapters go here)
Where’s the Appendix?
Very purposefully I have not got an appendix. I want readers to feel great about have got to this point and, hopefully, having fully understood each section. Far better to end on a high, wanting more, than to feel inadequate because just as you’ve "understood it" you’re confronted by pages of "deeper tech", "further reading" and "additional examples".
Instead, let me offer a few final points around the ‘what next’ as we wrap up.
The aim of this 30-minute read was to help you decide if you need to care or not. If you decide no, that’s absolutely fine. If you think yes, then you need to plan and execute your next steps and work out to increase your knowledge.
In such a fast-moving area pointing towards specific resources is never straightforward. For those looking from a formal academic and research point of view, there is the usual range of publications. For business executives wishing to stay abreast then there’s no one place to head.
As yet there is no clear publication focused purely on the business side (though that’s what we are working towards as Quantum London). For a constant stream of short, easy-to-digest articles, though most on the technology and investments side, you have The Quantum Daily and the Quantum Computing Report. For a more irreverent view Sergio Gago posts at Quantum Pirates, while Quantum London’s Quantum Computing publication can be followed on Medium for those of you who are members
A number of business-focused quantum conferences have now been running a few years. These have obviously been online over the past 12 months. It will be interesting to see the models they decide to pursue post-pandemic.
In terms of regular webinars please do key an eye on what we are producing in Quantum London, along with a great range of partners. For those in the insurance industry a must-read from Quantum London principal, Anahita Zardoshti, is the recent report around Quantum Computing in the insurance industry, which also includes a slightly deeper look at the technology side for those who want. Links to all available at www.qubits.london.
If this primer has whetted your appetite then we also recommend on of the first full-length books on the business impact of quantum computing. This has been written by a friend of Quantum London, and regular technology author, Brian Lenahan.
A note about Quantum London
Quantum London is an association run by Emanuele Colonnella ,Anahita Zardoshti and me, Paolo Cuomo. Throughout the pandemic, it has running webinars, Quantum Stammtisch discussion events, and coding sessions online. As we return to a more physical world, we will continue our mission of business a community focused on the business impact of quantum. This will be through a combination of our online global events and in-person activities in London and the UK, and in Milan, Italy.
See the previous sections here: Section 1 ([see here](https://towardsdatascience.com/quantum-computing-how-it-could-be-used-6f873dfb7cea?sk=4975f20dfd7e2f377b21b99cd811fd18)) gives a brief overview of what Quantum Computing is. Section 2 (see here) talks about what it means in reality.
About the author
Paolo Cuomo works in the insurance industry but has always been interested in how new technologies impact traditional industries.
Paolo is a strong believer in getting the conversation going through short, clear explanations. This primer aims to do that for quantum computing, to allow business executives to understand the need to be "quantum ready".
Most of Paolo’s insight comes from the experts he has interviewed and listened to through the webinar series he co-hosts as part of the Quantum London initiative.
Paolo holds a Masters in Electronic Engineering from Imperial College, London and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management near Chicago. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Engineering and Technology.