How to be less wrong
A Bayesian’s guide to predicting the future with limited data
Published in
7 min readApr 22, 2019
How much longer will the Berlin Wall stand? This is what went through J. Richard Gott’s head when he visited Germany in 1969.
If you think about it, this is a tough question, as there is not much data available about lifetimes of walls in Germany (in fact, the Berlin Wall is a single datapoint). How then to approach a question like that, where we are almost completely in the dark?
