How Bayesian statistics works in updating probabilities

How experiments update knowledge leading to accurate probability estimates

Dice-players and a bird-seller gathered around a stone slab — Master of the Gamblers — oil on canvas (public domain image taken from Wikipedia)

By studying a cheat’s winnings, it is possible to find out with what probability he will get points, without knowing his resources, by applying Bayes’ Theorem. In this story we see how performing some “experiments” makes it possible to correctly…