EPL Analysis and Gameweek 9 Prediction
A data driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics
This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for Game Week 8 and how it fared against the actual performance here.
Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.
Analysis up to Game-week 8
After 8 game weeks, the Foxes are on top of the table with 18 points with the Reds and Spurs at thier heels with 17 points each. The league is highly competitive with just 3 points seperating top 3 and 8 points separating top 15 teams.
After 8 gameweeks, the defending champions looks to be the best attacking side averaging around 2.5 xG per game. The Reds create more than 0.5 xG per game more than the Spurs who are at the second position. Leicester, Aston Villa, Leeds and Everton are the other teams who create more than 1.5xG per game.
Crystal Palace, Sheffield United, Wolves and Burnley who rely on defensive style of play are struggling with creativity not even able to create 1 xG per game. West Brom is in a very precarious position struggling with creating chances to score as well as containing the opposition attack.
When it comes to expected Goals Conceded per game, there is not a great difference between the teams. Most teams concede between 1 to 1.5 xG per game. Only Sheffield United, West Brom and Leeds conceded more than 1.5xG per game.
Based on xG Scored and xG Conceded, teams can be grouped into 4 quadrants as shown in the above graph.
The horizontal dotted line shows the average xG scored per game. Teams above the horizontal dotted line are strong attacking sides and the teams below, weak in attack.
The vertical dotted line shows the average xG conceded per game. Teams to the left have a strong defense and the teams to the right have week defense.
Bielsa’s Leeds which conceded the lowest number of goals in the championship is the team that has conceded the most xG per game in the League.
The curious case of the Seagulls Brighton is the only team for which we cannot observe a relation between xG stats and actual points. The Seagulls have conceded lowest xG per game, Also they are a decent attacking side with a healthy delta xG. They are the sixth best team as per delta xG above Everton and Man City. Yet, they are close to the relegation zone in the table with just 6 points from 8 games. Graham Potter’s side has been the unluckiest one in the season. Lack of quality finishers who can convert the chances into goals is also a major cause of concern.
Game Week 9 Predictions
Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The sample size is very small and also a lot of other important factors are not considered. The algorithm will evolve in the future incorporating more factors as the season progresses. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games.
Predictions for Game Week 9 are provided in the table below.
The absolute value of GD shows the competitiveness of the match. The higher the value, more one sided the match is expected to be and higher the accuracy of prediction.
The lower the value of GD, the more the match could be anybody’s game. Positive value of GD means Home win and Negative value means Away team win.
Most anticipated match of the upcoming game week is the clash between Mourinho’s Spurs and Pep’s City. The rivalry between the two has defined football in the last decade. The algorithm predicts the Spurs to dominate at home.
The Super Sunday match between the Defending Champions and the current table toppers also looks very interesting. The algorithm predicts a highly competitive match with a slight edge to the Reds over the Foxes. Both teams are weakened by injuries which is not factored in the algorithm. The performance of the teams on the field may be decided by the quality of Available XI on the match day. The match is also expected to e a high scoring one.
The league is very competitive and predicting winners is very difficult. However, the Red Devils has the most easy fixture in the upcoming weekend hosting the Sparrows at Home. Red Devils’ fans can look forward to their team score three points at the Theater of Dreams, which has become rare sight of late.
Chelsea, West Ham and Everton are also expected to win their away outings.
