An Introduction to Exceedance Probability Forecasting

Predicting the chance of extreme values in time series using Python

Vitor Cerqueira
Towards Data Science
6 min readApr 10, 2022

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Photo by Jean-Daniel Calame on Unsplash

Exceedance probability forecasting is the problem of estimating the probability that a time series will exceed a predefined threshold in a predefined future period.

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